Viewing conflicts through the eye of Counterinsurgency COIN – Since 2007
by Ian Bach June 5, 2015 Quick Reaction Force ww2
A couple months ago News Orgs were reporting G2 involved in Iraq strategy to retake Mosul – outlining the units needed, their make-up, and it looked good, 8 or 10 Brigades 5 general army 2 counter insurgent / counter terrorist 1 or 3 I forget policing & other local forces, maybe a couple Sunni Militias would be best. But it also said Coalition “was not going to rush in without a good plan.” My fear was they would drag their feet, and not do the correct thing = “Go for the Jugular”.
But like in World War 2 with Norway the allies didn’t lose that battle, it was given away.
Mosul could have been attacked a month or 2 ago – “Cut the head of the Serpent” even if it meant U.N. Units……….. but I would not use U.S. Units.
ISIS has been moving around doing stabbing attacks then fall back to ISIS held areas. These pin pricks have at times been more than pin pricks, and end up losing another city or area like Tikrit, Mosul, Raqqa, each city fell because there was no effective quick deployment strategies. At least not an effective one. If the American Generals wont help put it together, than Iraq needs to find a partner who can assist in the implementation of a effective response. For best effect America can make good use of the Air Force, look back at the “Berlin Airlift”. Humanitarian aide and Troop transport, & aerial attacks on forces that follow suicide attacks, It must be a large scale endeavor, as told in every COIN (counterinsurgency) story book, but almost never implemented.
I saw one ISIS post bragging that a ethnic Sunni tribe of 9 million has signed on with ISIS, eeeeerrrr NOT !….
More like a peace treaty that reads “We won’t kill your Sheiks if you let us run everything“. also if their is 9 million in that tribe I bet only 1-3 million in Iraq (rest in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, & elsewhere.) of 3 million how many soldiers can you get?
The answer is about 20,000 to 40,000 by my estimates another 10-20k accidental guerrillas, but you also get a 10 x that in people who they can tax and control who works and who doesn’t, they get into everything, people hate these guys, for good reason. People flee towns when ISIS comes knocking they don’t cheer.. As long as that metric remains true, than the enemy has not only lost the battle, but they have lost the War.
I am not sure who is running the Overall Military “show” in Iraq, but they should be fired. If we don’t even attempt to effectively counter the enemies abilities, strategies, and tactics, then we have lost the Battle, and the enemy will continue to gain ground, loot, kill rape, destroy history, etc.
ISIS strategy = Piss off non Muslims and non Sunni Arabs get into a fight for land and politics and minerals, make Money (prob #1 on their list) tax, tax, tax, also they sell electricity, gas, &water to Syrian Gov. Now in Iraq they can sell water to Iraqi Gov.with their Dam at Ramadi, of course looting is another activity they love to do, rape pillage etc etc, Their online strategy is mostly aimed at recruitment, indoctrination (making it look cool to some disenfranchised youth or some psycho)
ISIS Tactics = Fast attacks on Mass, lots of very large suicide tanker bombs, at start of battle many other various suicide Attucks to target individuals sheiks and communities,, kill scholars, any highly educated and looked up to figures kill or their possessions, kill any brave outspoken people asap, after that the remaining citizens will pretty much do what you say and pay your tax, they know they will be punished if they don’t. The money is used to fund “Global JIhad”. This was a strategy that al Qaeda had been pursuing long before ISIS. .
Coalitions Strategy = Sit wait and think of a really cool plan !!! (while the walls fall in)
Coalition Tactics = Wait until the enemy has had time to piss off the locals and find some really cool hiding places !!! they will tunnel and they love to set up lots of IEDs. SO expect Huge loses – because you waited till the enemy had time to dig in, also highly restrict your air force from even thinking about hitting any targets, unless Some overworked guy okays it. I say over worked guy. Because from the number of strikes I see it must be a one man show. We need thousands of people in that endeavor alone. hundreds of eyes in the skies, and thousands of eyes on the ground. If we do have that, then someone on top must be sitting on his hands. – by Ian Bach June 5, 2015