Viewing conflicts through the eye of Counterinsurgency COIN – Since 2007
Even without a crystal ball we can make a few assumptions based on what we see going on the Ground.
Iraq’s Prime Minister says they are preparing to retake Mosul from ISSI / Daesh
ISIS has recently moved Southeast of Mosul and almost have control of the town al-Baghdadi
al-Baghdadi is City near the al-Asad airport where U.S. troops are training Iraqi Army Units.
I am hoping we will see the IA Iraqi Army move through al-Baghdadi on their way to the Southern boarders of the city of Mosul. However that is not that likely. One sad note will be the people who Daesh have co-opted on their way across Western Iraq last year, and those within Mosul. Daesh has already made it clear they expect each family iin Mosul to have one of their sons join Daesh in their attempts to hold back the Peshmerga and Iraqi Army. Hopefully and I am expecting this we may not see the Shiite militias involved expect maybe some top commanders aidiing the Iraqi Army IA battle commanders. The reason I hope we do not see them in the battle for Mosul is it would send the wrong message to Sunni Tribes in the Anbar Provence. I would love to see local Anbar militias join in on the battle to take back Mosul. It would send a good strong message the Government is willing to work with, and include them, However it is unlikely we would see that happen. The Anbar militias have been meeting with the U.S. Government to try get heavy weapon for the Suni Militias. The U.S. governments position so far has been to give all Weapons and Ammo to the Iraqi Government. This requirement has ended up with the Shiite militias getting all the best weapons while the Kurds and Sunni tribes have been denied shipments of heavy weapons, (which they both desperately need). ISIS has been targeting and killing many Sunni shieks and any other high profile military, religious and/or other high rank persons of interest.