Viewing conflicts through the eye of Counterinsurgency COIN – Since 2007
And so the dance continues. Obama continues to court Militant Rebel groups is Syria. There was over 40 rebel groups in Aleppo in 2013. There is a lot less now, approx. 20. The rebel groups range from neighborhood gang like groups with a few hundred fighting men, to groups like al Nusra with approx 5-7k fighters. However these groups also put locals on the payroll. Jobs like lobbing grenades at regime forces, to selling a child to be used as a suicide bomber (families are often forced or coerced/threatened and the children are as young as 8 or 9, many of the children are orphans), also paying some citizens for intel on who may not be loyal to the terrorist,s who have taken control of their town, and payment for the military needs to eat and drink, and so on. This can make a force 2 – 3 times its core grouping. ISIS numbers are 30k + depending on way you look at who is a militant, or on the payroll, just trying to buy bread.
Assad/Regime Forces are 200-400k regularly military. The Assad Regime has popular support in regime held areas, and areas taken back from the rebels. 80-90% popularity/support in areas that have seen very little conflict, to 70-80% in areas taken back from rebels.
Looks like a kinda sweet deal retirement at age 40-45 after only 15 – 20 years of service in the military. Now if you have been in the Military for even 5 years, if the Assad Regime fails you lose pensions, and job and may become a political prisoner. Hell I would fight for that alone.
But we know the real reason Syrians are fighting is they want to remain a Secular Society and Nation. Every rebel group is Sunni Arab (many Wahhabi) in their top military/fighting ranks). It does not take a genius to see why a total of 50-60k rebels (including all groups ISIS, al nusra, FSA, etc.) yet no central organized control or leadership between those 20 rebel groups……. …….will not likely win against a Regime force of 400k and another 200k + Civilian Guards (Men and Women) that have local backing. As well as Pro-Regime militias like Shabiha and Jaysh al-Sha’bi maybe another 5-20k. This is why I hope The Syrian Kurds sign pacts with the Regime, before the groups like ISIS get crushed into only hundreds of militants on the hide or run. – Ian Bach
“CNN)The U.S. military will deploy 400 trainers and hundreds more troops in a train-and-equip mission for Syrian rebel forces, the Pentagon said Friday.
The American troops will be deployed starting in early spring on six- to eight-week missions in three countries — Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia — as part of the Obama administration’s plan to expand training for moderate Syrian rebels.”
Cheers to #twitterkurds, and all those who fight for the rule of secular law.
Lets fight the real enemies of Syria which include #daesh, #daash, #IS, #ISIS, and influential donors and backers of the War on Syria from Turkey, Qatar, al Jazzera, the Wahhabis, Saudi arabia, Kuwait and elsewhere.