Ian Bach

Viewing conflicts through the eye of Counterinsurgency COIN – Since 2007

U.S. to begin training more rebels in Syria But does the math add up?

Syria SITREP December 23-30-2014_-01And so the dance continues. Obama continues to court Militant Rebel groups is Syria. There was over 40 rebel groups in Aleppo in 2013. There is a lot less now, approx. 20. The rebel groups range from neighborhood gang like groups with a few hundred fighting men, to groups like al Nusra with approx 5-7k fighters. However these groups also put locals on the payroll. Jobs like lobbing grenades at regime forces, to selling a child to be used as a suicide bomber (families are often forced or coerced/threatened and the children are as young as 8 or 9, many of the children are orphans), also paying some citizens for intel on who may not be loyal to the terrorist,s who have taken control of their town, and payment for the military needs to eat and drink, and so on.  This can make a force 2 – 3 times its core grouping. ISIS numbers are 30k + depending on way you look at who is a militant, or on the payroll, just trying to buy bread.

Assad/Regime Forces are 200-400k regularly military. The Assad Regime has popular support in regime held areas, and areas taken back from the rebels. 80-90% popularity/support in areas that have seen very little conflict, to 70-80% in areas taken back from rebels.

Looks like a kinda sweet deal retirement at age 40-45 after only 15 – 20 years of service in the military. Now if you have been in the Military for even 5 years, if the Assad Regime fails you lose pensions, and job and may become a political prisoner. Hell I would fight for that alone.

But we know the real reason Syrians are fighting is they want to remain a Secular Society and Nation. Every rebel group is Sunni Arab (many Wahhabi) in their top military/fighting ranks). It does not take a genius to see why a total of 50-60k rebels (including all groups ISIS, al nusra, FSA, etc.) yet no central organized control or leadership between those 20 rebel groups……. …….will not likely win against a Regime force of 400k and another 200k + Civilian Guards (Men and Women) that have local backing. As well as Pro-Regime militias like Shabiha and  Jaysh al-Sha’bi maybe another 5-20k. This is why I hope The Syrian Kurds sign pacts with the Regime, before the groups like ISIS get crushed into only hundreds of militants on the hide or run. – Ian Bach

“CNN)The U.S. military will deploy 400 trainers and hundreds more troops in a train-and-equip mission for Syrian rebel forces, the Pentagon said Friday.

The American troops will be deployed starting in early spring on six- to eight-week missions in three countries — Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia — as part of the Obama administration’s plan to expand training for moderate Syrian rebels.”Kurdish group photo

Cheers to #twitterkurds, and all those who fight for the rule of secular law.

Lets fight the real enemies of Syria which include #daesh, #daash, #IS, #ISIS, and influential donors and backers of the War on Syria from Turkey, Qatar, al Jazzera, the Wahhabis, Saudi arabia, Kuwait and elsewhere.


About Ian Bach

Independent Online Terrorist Hunter I teach people how to hunt down and shut down the Bad guys web sites. I also teach about the various countries and cultures. Like most cases it is a small group of bsd eggs that in this case call themselves Muslims but in actual fact they are more like how KKK call themselves ",True Christisians". But in both cases / groups they preach a perverted and twisted view a religion. In the case of ISIS, all Qaeda, al Nusra, and the rest of the terrorists who claim to be true Muslims most of these groups follow the Wahhabi teachings. They are almost all Sunni and their goal is global domination. Yet they must be very bad at math and history. Since most Muslims prefer a separation of church and state and also mist are against Shari's Law. Esp the twisted and overly exaggerated form of Sharia Law that the Wahhabi and other bad guys use. I have studied terrorism, insurgencies, and the best tried and proven methods that work to fight terrorism. My Blogs have many links and articles that can show you who are the best and most knowledgeable people in the fields or counterinsurgency and counter terrorism. When I find great practitioner's I always listen to them to find out who they learned from and who they respect and admire. Thus I am always learning new stuff from the best and most successful in their fields of knoeledge. I strive to be an open and ethical source of information, I have met many awesome, kind, caring, and loving wonderful people many who I am close friends with now from Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Iran, and many from S.E. Asia which also has a high percent of their populations that are Muslim.We must always strive to be aware people are not any one particular religion via that's what they chose to be, instead most people are a particular religion because that's what their parents and/or county is. I was raised Catholic but because I became Interested in magic ,(illusion - smoke n mirrors) and science which lead me to study many religions, and I would call myself an atheist. Yet sometimes when I lose my keys ZI find myself praying "Hail Marys" and a few "Our Fathers" which most always aides me in finding my keys. My belief is that if I just frantically look around for my krys, good luck it takes me for ever. But by saying these prayers it is like s sort of meditation and my mind becomes more calm, which is why it helps my find my keys.

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