Viewing conflicts through the eye of Counterinsurgency COIN – Since 2007
The “Great Game” (see definition below)
When I first started my Blog I mentioned my desire to create a computer program that would allow users to review web sites and report suspect terrorist web sites, and web scams sites. A web “Bot” would craw the web to search for suspect sites that include standard phases, pics, etc, used by terrorists and scam sites. Those would be feed to the program for users to review. (due to high possibilities of liability issues I never created this computer program)
Over the past month I have found myself often thinking about how I could create a battle sim game about terrorism, insurgency, and counterinsurgency. However one undeniable factor is that the terrorists would always lose, given enough time, all insurgencies end in a political solution. Also it is hard to recreate the likelihood of mistakes made by people and politicians due to their fears. It may be a good training tool for our military personal, or even some politicians (politicians – who seem to not understand even the basics of the necessity of public backing). Our military still needs to train not only our troops, we need to train our population and media orgs. People’s perceptions are what guide them and their actions.
In Iraq we have seen that if a city has no security the people will align with local militant groups. For all those who wonder why most Muslims are afraid to stand up….Well you would be afraid also, or if not you may end up dead..Let me put it like this….
1.) Have you ever seen a shooting in an area with heavy gang influences? Have you ever noticed when they interview local citizens they won’t talk to the police and give out information about the suspects? Trust me they are not speaking for fear of reprisals and death.
2.) Today in America in Major cities many poor, low income areas have a very low police presence. There are many reasons why, but the results are more gangs. Without public protection citizens seek the protection of local gangs or miltant groups.
From the British perspective, the Russian conquest of Central Asia threatened to destroy the so-called “jewel in the crown” of the British Empire, India. As the Tsar’s troops began to subdue one Khanate after another the British feared that Afghanistan would become a staging post for a Russian invasion of India. It was with these thoughts in mind that in 1838 the British launched the First Anglo-Afghan War and attempted to impose a puppet regime under Shuja Shah. The regime was short lived, and unsustainable without British military support. By 1842, mobs were attacking the British on the streets of Kabul and the British garrison agreed to a retreat from Kabul with guaranteed safe passage. Unfortunately for the British, the guarantee proved to be worthless. The retreating British column consisted of approximately 4,500 military personnel and 12,000 camp followers including many women and children. During a series of ruthless attacks, all but one Dr William Brydon were killed on the march back to India.
The British curbed their ambitions in Afghanistan following the humiliating retreat from Kabul. After the Indian rebellion of 1857, successive British governments saw Afghanistan as a buffer state. The Russians, led by Konstantin Kaufman, Mikhail Skobelev, and Mikhail Chernyayev, continued to advance steadily southward toward Afghanistan and by 1865 Tashkent had been formally annexed. Samarkand became part of the Russian Empire three years later and the independence of Bukhara was virtually stripped away in a peace treaty the same year. Russian control now extended as far as the northern bank of the Amu Darya river.